Excerpts from the Wall Street Journal at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124890178435291341.html:Support Slips for Health Plan
Obama Push Faces Growing Doubts in Poll; Overhaul Advances in House, SenateWASHINGTON -- Support for President Barack Obama's health-care effort has declined over the past five weeks, particularly among those who already have insurance, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found, amid prolonged debate over costs and quality of care.
In mid-June, respondents were evenly divided when asked whether they thought Mr. Obama's health plan was a good or bad idea. In the new poll, conducted July 24-27, 42% called it a bad idea while 36% said it was a good idea.
Among those with private insurance, the proportion calling the plan a bad idea rose to 47% from 37%.
Declining popularity of the health-care overhaul reflects rising anxiety over the federal budget deficit and congressional debate over the most contentious aspects of the legislation, including how to pay for it. The poll also shows concern over the role of government in determining personal medical decisions.
...The White House is eager to show progress and build public support before Congress breaks for summer, when opponents plan to continue their campaign. "If this bill hangs out there over the August recess my guess is it will get shredded," House Minority Leader John Boehner (R., Ohio), said.
In the Journal poll, only two in 10 people said the quality of their own care would improve under the Obama plan; just 15% of those with private insurance thought it would. Twice as many overall, and three times as many with private coverage, predicted their own care would get worse.
"You can't pass a substantial health reform unless privately insured people see there's a benefit for them," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducts the poll with Democrat Peter D. Hart.
...The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points for the overall sample.
...the debate in Washington, which has been dominated by the $1 trillion, 10-year price tag for covering the uninsured. That makes it hard to persuade people that the bill will lead to reduced costs, said Mr. Axelrod.
"People are properly skeptical about any proposals out of Washington that speak to cost because they've been singed by past experience," said the senior Obama adviser.
...On the question of how to pay for the measure, the poll found only one idea with majority support: a surtax on the rich, the approach taken in the bill moving through the House, but which isn't expected in the Senate version.
Public support for fining businesses that don't offer insurance dropped from last month, with half of those polled now in favor. Only four in 10 liked the idea of taxing insurance companies that offer particularly generous health plans, an idea that has gained currency in the Senate Finance Committee.
The poll found that Mr. Obama's overall ratings have fallen amid worries over the economy, with the decline due almost entirely to dwindling support by Republicans. His score is solid by historical standards but no longer at the high-flying levels of his early weeks.
Overall, Mr. Obama's ratings fell on a series of measures. His job approval now stands at 53%, down from a high of 61% in April. That is three points higher than President George W. Bush had in June 2001, following a contentious election victory.
The proportion of people who said it was very or fairly likely that Mr. Obama would bring "real change" dropped to 51% from 61% in February. The share of those who said he could be trusted to keep his word fell to 48% this month from 58% in April.
Mr. Hart, the Democratic pollster, said rising concerns over employment and the economy explained Mr. Obama's falling ratings.
"He seems embroiled in so many of the issues of the day without much sense of relief on the economic front," he said.
The poll also found a rising sense of partisanship. More than three in 10 surveyed said the current Congress has been more partisan and divided than in the past, compared with just 11% who said it has been less partisan.
...On other issues, the poll found:
...Falling support for the economic stimulus plan, with 34% in favor, down from 44% in February; 43% now say it is a bad idea.
...
Excerpts from the New York Times at http://documents.nytimes.com/new-york-times-cbs-news-poll-health-care-overhaul#p=1:
New Poll Finds Growing Unease on Health PlanBy ADAM NAGOURNEY and MEGAN THEE-BRENAN
Published: July 29, 2009
President Obama’s ability to shape the debate on health care appears to be eroding as opponents aggressively portray his overhaul plan as a government takeover that could limit Americans’ ability to choose their doctors and course of treatment, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
Stephen Crowley/The New York Times
Protesters and supporters lined Mr. Obama’s route in Raleigh, N.C. A poll shows concern about the effect of an overhaul.
Americans are concerned that revamping the health care system would reduce the quality of their care, increase their out-of-pocket health costs and tax bills, and limit their options in choosing doctors, treatments and tests, the poll found. The percentage who describe health care costs as a serious threat to the American economy — a central argument made by Mr. Obama — has dropped over the past month.
...reflecting a problem that has hindered efforts to bring major changes to health care for decades, Americans expressed considerable unease about what the end result would mean for them individually.
...With Congress now almost certain to recess until after
Labor Day without floor votes on any specific plan, a vigorous advertising and grass-roots effort to shift public opinion is likely in the next month or two. The poll offers hope to both sides.
The changes in the public’s attitude over the past month, even if not huge, suggest one reason Mr. Obama sought so hard to get Congress to vote on some version of an overhaul before heading home.
Opponents of the proposed health care overhaul have already spent $9 million on television advertisements raising concerns about it, said Evan Tracey, the chief operating officer of Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising. The advertisements are financed by the
Republican National Committee and aimed at constituents of wavering lawmakers. The committee is also running radio spots.
...The advertisements present the overhaul as a risky experiment, or a government takeover of health care that would prevent people from choosing their own doctors.
...The national poll was conducted by telephone starting on Friday and ending on Tuesday. It involved 1,050 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Mr. Obama’s job approval rating has dropped 10 points, to 58 percent, from a high point in April.
And despite his efforts — in speeches, news conferences, town-hall-style meetings and other forums — to address public misgivings, 69 percent of respondents in the poll said they were concerned that the quality of their own care would decline if the government created a program that covers everyone.
...The poll found 66 percent of respondents were concerned that they might eventually lose their insurance if the government did not create a new health care system, and 80 percent said they were concerned that the percentage of Americans without health care would continue to rise if Congress did not act.
...
Over all, the poll portrays a nation torn by conflicting impulses and confusion.
In one finding, 75 percent of respondents said they were concerned that the cost of their own health care would eventually go up if the government did not create a system of providing health care for all Americans. But in another finding, 77 percent said they were concerned that the cost of health care would go up if the government did create such a system.
From Newsweek at http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2009/07/30/how-worried-should-obama-be-about-his-poll-numbers.aspx:
How Worried Should Obama Be About His Poll Numbers? Katie Connolly
Today’s headlines are screaming with bad news for President Obama. Two significant polls – from the Wall Street Journal / NBC and the New York Times / CBS – show support for his health care reform plans slipping, alongside his general approval rating. This is perhaps an unsurprising development when health care is dominating the national debate. History has proven repeatedly that this issue is kryptonite for presidents. Health care reform is an easy issue to dog – it’s far simpler to criticize a system than fix it, and promoting fear of change is easier than explaining the complex nuances of policy alterations. Simply put, health care is a really hard sell, even for gifted communicators. Just ask Bill Clinton.
So just how bad are these polls for the President? They’re certainly worrying, but in my view there are hopeful signs. We in the news media delight in dramatic narratives, and these polls can easily paint a damaging picture. But there is enough conflicting evidence in the numbers that the message I’m taking away is this: Americans are hedging. Let’s check out the evidence, starting with the positives.
The Good News for Obama
Although his approval rating has dropped, it is still in the majority and relatively high. Comparisons to Bill Clinton have been thrown around in the press today, but they’re misleading. Yes, only around 41 percent of people approve of Obama’s handling of healthcare, and yes, that’s about the same about Clinton’s approval ratings in August of 1994 when his health reform plan died. But, those two figures aren’t the right ones to compare. We should be comparing overall approval, where Obama’s is still 12-15 points higher than Clinton’s 41 percent depending on the poll. That’s good news for Obama – he still has credibility with voters and can build on it. He’s also much further along the process than Clinton was, another reason for him to take heart. Moreover, respondents in the New York Times poll prefer Obama’s ideas on health care to Republicans in Congress 55 percent to 26 percent.
The polls seem to indicate that Americans both want and fear reform. Take this nugget form The New York Times: “In one finding, 75 percent of respondents said they were concerned that the cost of their own health care would eventually go up if the government did not create a system of providing health care for all Americans. But in another finding, 77 percent said they were concerned that the cost of health care would go up if the government did create such a system.” They also report that two thirds of people are worried about losing insurance and 80% believe the numbers of uninsured will rise if reform fails,
So, probably as a result of the mixed messages emanating from DC, respondents worry about reform and at the same time worry about reform failing. This could be an opportunity for Obama, particularly if this insight from NBC plays out: “When read the specifics of his goals for health care — like requiring insurers to cover those with pre-existing conditions, providing low-income families with subsidies to help them afford insurance, and raising taxes on the wealthy to pay for the subsidies — 56 percent say they support Obama’s plan. Only 38 percent oppose.” Perhaps what these polls show most clearly is that Obama hasn’t been specific enough in his plans, especially while his opponents have been so explicit in their criticisms. He’s losing because he’s combating particulars with generalities. When respondents are answering questions about “Obama’s plan” it’s still not even clear what that plan is. The President certainly hasn’t detailed it. In this debate, specifics will always prevail over abstractions, but fortunately for Obama, that’s not such a hard problem to remedy.
The Bad News for Obama
Most of the bad news is obvious (approval slipping etc), so there’s no need for me to rehash in detail. The most worrying trend for Obama shouldn’t be top-line numbers but the reasons respondents cite for concern: limiting choice of physicians, increasing out of pocket expenses, increasing taxes etc. The New York Times reports, “69 percent of respondents in the poll said they were concerned that the quality of their own care would decline if the government created a program that covers everyone.” All of this adds up to one thing: GOP talking points are sticking. In an unusual turnaround for his presidency, Obama hasn’t been able to communicate effectively. That’s partly because he is working against history: the concerns listed above haven’t changed since the 90s, or even the 70s. They are the residue of past failed attempts, which is why they’re so sticky. Worries over choice and cost are so deeply ingrained in the American psyche that the best way overcome them is to create a different bogeyman. We’ve seen the White House do that this week, as Obama has shifted his focus to insurance companies, referring repeatedly to “health insurance reform.” But that strategy is too new for it’s effectiveness to be measured in these polls.
The potency of opposition talking points is double bad news for Obama as Congress heads toward recess. He’s facing a month where the legislation will stall but advertising will ramp up. It will be increasingly difficult for him to control the debate. And Republicans will focus on rallying points, like the public plan, diverting attention away from other critical parts of the debate – like the health insurance exchange, tax-exempt status, reimbursement regimes and cost controls. This is exactly why the President wanted a bill passed before August, and exactly why looking down Pennsylvania Avenue at an empty Capitol next month should make him nervous.